A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
